Wildfire smoke could return to Western New York this weekend

ROCHESTER, N.Y. (WROC) — As much of Western New York rounds out a wet week which came along with a big pattern change in our weather, many also breathed a sigh of relief as it ushered wildfire smoke out of our region.

Unfortunately, the fires are still burning across Canada. Active fires are currently present in every Canadian province, except for Nunavut, the continued burning leaves us vulnerable to seeing wildfire smoke return in Western New York.

Recent weather patterns have largely kept the flow of air above Western New York out of the south, which has kept wildfire smoke trapped off to our north and west. Through the next couple of days — from June 15 to June 18 — we’ll watch the flow change back to a more northerly direction as a wave of low-pressure dives in from the northern Great Plains.

This will draw smoke back into the region. The difference, at least through Friday, June 16, is that most of the smoke will remain well above our heads and not settle at the ground like the last time.

A note from the the News 8 Weather Team:
Model guidance that specifically tracks smoke and dust, as well as potential air quality impacts only shows data for the next 48 hours. While as a team we do our best to infer out potential impacts based on other factors, there are limitations to the tools we are using to give you the most accurate forecast that we can. As a result, the level of detail that we speak about potential impacts of air quality or smoke past 48 hours will be lower as uncertainty in the forecast rises past that point.

Forecasts from the EPA, which monitors air quality nationwide, show that air quality is expected to be “Moderate” (2/6) on the AQI scale for Thursday, June 15. Only those who are extremely sensitive to changes in air pollution are typically impacted at this level. Friday, air quality impacts are also expected to be limited due in part to more rain arriving across Western New York.

Into this weekend as our incoming upper-level low moves across Maine, it is likely smoke in the area thickens as the flow of air into our region becomes more northerly and could tap into smoke from the nearby Quebec wildfires. It was these fires’ close proximity to our area that allowed air quality to deteriorate across much of the East Coast.

Now with a similar flow pattern in place, we are watching Saturday, June 17, and Sunday, June 18, closely for potential impacts. We will update this as we watch new and more detailed guidance come in over the next few days.

Watch for updates from the News 8 Weather Team on News 8 at Sunrise, from 5 to 7 a.m., News 8 at Noon, News 8 First at 4, and News 8 at 5, 6, and 11 p.m. weekdays, and on News 8 Weekend Edition at 6 and 11 p.m., Saturday and Sunday, as we continue to fine-tune any potential impacts in our forecasts. For a look at the forecast any time of day, click here.

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